Comparison of five staging systems in predicting the survival rate of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing trans-arterial chemoembolization therapy

The majority of patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergo trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE). However, the prognosis of HCC remains poor. In the present study, five staging systems were compared to predict the survival rate of patients with HCC undergoing TACE treatment. A total of 220 patients with HCC were examined according to the model to estimate survival for hepatocellular carcinoma (MESH), hepatoma arterial embolization prognostic score (HAP), modified HAP (mHAP), performance status combined Japan Integrated Staging system (PSJIS) and tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging systems. The endpoints of the study were 3-month survival, 6-month survival, 1-year survival and overall survival (OS) rates. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis indicated that the area under the curve of MESH, HAP, mHAP, PSJIS and TNM was 0.858, 0.728, 0.690, 0.688 and 0.699, respectively, in predicting 3-month survival rates; 0.822, 0.747, 0.720, 0.722 and 0.715, respectively, in predicting 6-month survival rates and 0.725, 0.664, 0.672, 0.645 and 0.654, respectively, in predicting 1-year survival rates. Discriminatory ability, homogeneity, monotonicity and prognostic stratification ability was evaluated using a likelihood ratio test and Akaike information criterion values among the five staging systems, and revealed that the MESH system was the optimal prognostic staging system for HCC. In conclusion, the results of the present study suggest that the MESH system is the most accurate prognostic staging system of 3-month survival, 6-month survival, 1-year survival and OS rates among the five systems analyzed in patients with HCC who have received TACE treatment.